Paper 41 -- So it’s Reliable but is it Safe? A more Balanced Approach to ATM Safety Assessment

The paper argues that past ATM safety assessments have often been pre-occupation with system failure (at the expense of functionality and performance) and that this limited approach cannot be sustained in the face of radical changes being considered for ATM over the next 20 years or so. It presents a framework for a broader approach to safety assessment, covering what are known as success and failure approaches: the former is concerned with ensuring that ATM systems / services actually deliver the necessary reduction in aviation risk (ie contribute to the prevention of aircraft accidents) when functioning as required; whilst the latter is concerned with ensuring that there would be no significant increase in risk (ie cause, or fail to prevent, accidents) in the event of ATM system malfunction